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Choppy recovery but little risk of a further credit crunch

Choppy recovery but little risk of a further credit crunch

The August Inflation Report from the Bank of England, which was published yesterday, was not as optimistic as contractor accountants might have hoped.

Mervyn King, the Governor of the Bank of England, warned that the economy faces a choppy recovery over the next couple of years. The Bank has said they expect inflation will remain higher for longer than they had previously anticipated and this has led to a lowering of the economic growth forecast. The report also suggests that interest rates will remain at their historic low in the immediate future.

Previously, the Bank had expected to see growth of around 3.4% in 2011 but this has now been revised to around 2.5%. The main reason for the revision is the coalition’s decision to increase the VAT rate to 20% as from the beginning of next year.

Mr King pointed out that the continuing economic stimulus measures along with the drop in value of the pound were helping the economy to expand but this is being offset by the lack of lending from the banks, something that affects contractors.

However, King did stress that the cost cutting plans put in place by the government have reduced the risk of a double dip recession.

Economists were quick to comment with some saying the report was more ‘dovish’ than had been anticipated. Howard Archer, from IHS Global Insight, said the report reinforced their view that interest rates will remain at 0.5% until early in 2011. He forecasts that we will not the first rise in rates will until the summer next year.

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Image: Gloomy Hippo by r.j.wagner

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